Faced with the challenges of climate change, the goal of carbon neutrality, an increase in the share of electricity in the electricity mix, and the challenge of security of supply, will nuclear power see new growth worldwide by 2050? Will nuclear power see new growth worldwide by 2050?

What will be the decisive factors: technological choices? Scientific cooperation? Diplomatic relations and geopolitics? Risk prevention? Sovereignty imperatives?

What is France's place and role among the major players?

With an international perspective, Hervé Machenaud, industry expert and former EDF executive, will offer us some key insights into the dynamics of the nuclear industry.

Hervé Machenaud is a graduate of the Ecole Polytechnique, the Ponts et Chaussées engineering school and the Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris.

In 1982, he joined EDF as deputy director of development for the Paluel nuclear power plant. From 1984 to 1989, he was in charge of the Group's development in China as Technical Director for the construction of the Daya Bay nuclear power plant, and until 1998, also responsible for the French and international nuclear program. From 2002 to 2017, he was EDF's Asia-Pacific Director, and until 2015, he was in charge of EDF's generation and engineering activities.

Currently a partner inTrail Capital, a Franco-Chinese investment fund, Hervé Machenaud is a French foreign trade advisor and Chairman of the China section of Sciences Po Alumni . Hervé Machenaud is a member of the Académie des Technologies and Chevalier de la Légion d'Honneur. He is the author of La France dans le noir, Les Belles Lettres, Paris.

This meeting is organized jointly by the Sciences Po Alumni Energy, Infrastructure and Mobility Group and the Ponts Alumni Energy Group.

Photo credit CNNC - Construction of the Hualong Fuqing 5 production head (CNNC)

In 2020, nuclear power accounted for around 10% of global electricity production and 5% of global energy production. It grew rapidly in the second half of the 20th century, from 84 to 420 GW between 1971 and 1989, then stagnating at around 440 GW until the present day.Its carbon content, estimated at 4 g/kWh over the entire life cycle, is perfectly in line with that of wind turbines (around 5 g/kWh) and photovoltaic solar panels (estimated at 6 g/kWh). By comparison, the carbon content of bioenergy and combined-cycle gas power plants with carbon capture and storage is estimated at 150 g/kWh. Its footprint is between 50 and 100 times smaller than that of a wind farm with equivalent installed capacity, a decisive factor when considering the large-scale development of non-carbon energy sources.

Today, between the challenge of global warming, with a target of carbon neutrality by 2050, the need to increase the share of electricity in the energy mix to contribute to decarbonization, and the growing challenges of security of supply and energy systems, is nuclear power going to see new growth? decarbonization, and the growing challenges of security of supply and energy systems, will nuclear power see a new lease of life?

For an equivalent installed capacity, a nuclear power plant does not provide the same service to the power system, and hence the energy system, as a wind or solar farm. Its production is both stable and controllable. However, it does not involve the same issues either. For example, the treatment of radioactive waste, its recycling, its storage for many centuries and the general level of safety required by a nuclear power plant are all issues that need to be addressed.The treatment of radioactive waste, its recycling, its storage for many centuries and the general level of safety required by a nuclear power plant are all legitimate aspects of the public debate that need to be considered with care, caution and seriousness. Establishing the right institutions to deal with these issues may also be a factor limiting the speed of development. Citizens and their elected representatives expect well-constructed, rational and transparent answers.

Between these new challenges and opportunities, we'll see whether the success factors for the development of nuclear power between now and 2050 lie more in technology, between the flexible SMR and the EPRs, which involve larger construction sites, in scientific and diplomatic cooperation and their relationship with geopolitics, or whether the cultural elements of risk prevention on the one hand and the need for sovereignty on the other are stronger.scientific and diplomatic cooperation and their relationship with geopolitics, or whether the cultural elements of risk prevention on the one hand, or the need for sovereignty on the other, are stronger. France's place and role in the concert of major players will also be examined.